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At first, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a strong stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "serious ramifications" last August in case Vladimir Putin continued blocking peace negotiations, Trump finally enacted major sanctions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, via his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, that was drafted by American and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or European participation, the former president has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's proposal would essentially benefit the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the initiative actually weaken that essential autonomy. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate background, the former president seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, as if handing Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will please the leader. However, Russia's invasion is not only about controlling a damaged region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's political system – and Putin's obvious intention to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an attractive example for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's increasing dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although freezing in status the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding Russia with area that its military have been unable to capture in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

The area is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that represent a essential impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital should he eventually choose to restart the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a action that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the initiative places no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's chosen by the people government as Nazis, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any radical doctrine and activities must be opposed and forbidden." As if to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by allowing votes in Russia.

Defense Commitments

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent accords in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should the international community believe Russia now?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on western protection assurances. While the plan promises a "immediate joint armed reaction" if Russia renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from vague to concerning. The initiative would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the security presence, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from restoring his reduced military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

A separate side agreement reportedly would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. Yet unlike a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of alliance members, such as Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not